Day 1
Bond Analytics
Introduction to Fixed Income Securities
- What is a bond?
- Who issues and invests
- Bond characteristics
- Coupon: fixed, floating, zero coupon bonds (“strips”)
- Price/yield relationship
- The major Government bond markets
- The Eurobond market
- MTN issuance programme
- Corporate bond issuance
Yield Curves & Fixed Income Valuation
- Calculating a bond’s price on a coupon date
- Clean (quoted) v dirty price
- Common accrual conventions
- Calculating a bond’s price on a non-coupon date
- Interpreting the price: defining yield measures
- Yield to maturity as an internal rate of return (IRR)
- Yield to call
- Running yield
- The yield curve and yield curve theories
- Econometric forecasting of the yield curve
Case study: Delegates will price various fixed income instruments
Day 2
Bond Analytics
Understanding the Zero Coupon Curve
- The problem with YTMs:
- Re-investment risk
- Understanding the zero-coupon bond pricing concept and its importance in the marking-to-market process
- Constructing the zero-coupon equivalent yield curve
- The government bond “strip” curve
- Using zero-coupon discount factors in the price discovery process
Case study: Delegates will derive the zero-coupon curve and use it to value a number of instruments
Fixed Income Market Risk Analysis
- Price-yield relationship for option-free bonds
- Determinants of bond price sensitivity
- Measures of bond price sensitivity:
- Macaulay Duration
- Modified Duration
- Dollar Duration, PVBP (Present Value of a Basis Point)
- Calculation and interpretation of duration
- The non-linear properties of duration: time, yield and coupon dependencies
- Calculating the duration of a bond portfolio
Bond Simulation: Participants will use bond analytic software to understand fixed income exposures and the role convexity plays
Convexity
- Convexity defined
- Calculating convexity for fixed coupon bonds
- The implications and ‘value’ of positive & negative convexity on market yields
- Relationship between convexity and interest rate volatility
- Limitations of duration and convexity: assumptions, benefits & shortcomings
Case study: Delegates will use duration and convexity measures to determine a bond’s return in a changing yield curve environment
Day 3
Yield Pick-Up from Trading Credit: Corporate Bonds & Credit Spread Analysis
Corporate Bonds & Understanding the Spread
- Macro drives of the credit spread
- Measuring the credit spread
- Yield spread over the benchmark and I-spread
- Deriving the asset swap spread
- Par-par v yield asset swaps
- What is the Z-spread
- Asset swap spread v Z-spread
- The role of the credit default swap (CDS) in pricing new issues and relative value analysis
- Relationship between CDS, asset swap, and repo
- Understanding negative and positive CDS basis
- Which spread to use?
- Taking into account the term structure of default probabilities: “arbitrage” pricing spread
Corporate Bonds and the Rating Process
- The role of the rating agencies
- What is a rating?
- Issuer v issue ratings
- Ratings watch & outlook
- What factors drive the rating
- Empirical performance
- Default frequencies
- Rating transition tables
- Recovery rates
- The importance of sovereign ratings
Hedging Interest Rate Risk & the Credit Spread
- Hedging with government bonds and futures referenced to the government curve
- Setting up the hedge ratio
- The problem with traditional approaches
- Using CDS’s to hedge spread risk
- Portfolio hedging approaches with iTraxx contracts
Day 4
Selecting Instrument Types for Outperformance
Credit Linked Notes & Securitisation
- Creating a CLN
- The market for securitised products
- Issuance patterns pre and post the crisis
- Motivation for issuers and investors
- Building a CDO
- Balance sheet v arbitrage deals
- Cash flow v synthetic instruments
- CDS primer
Creating Value through Convertible Bond Arbitrage
- How do convertible bonds work?
- Understanding the terminology
- Establishing the arbitrage trade
- Understanding the key risk factors of a convertible arb trade
- How well has the trade worked in the past?
- Practical example of an arb trade
Inflation-Linked Bonds: Real v Nominal Returns
- Rationale for issuance
- Market size
- Mechanics explained
- US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
- RSA Inflation-linked market
- Real v nominal returns
- What about deflation?
- What are the (hidden) risks
- The role of inflation linked bonds in portfolio construction
Day 5
Portfolio Management Strategies:Yield Enhancement & Trading Strategies
Trading Structured Products: Yield Enhancement with Callable Bonds
- What is a callable bond
- Investor motivation: identifying the yield enhancement
- Hedging strategies for the issuer using swaptions
- Why issue step-up callable bonds
- A generalised template for valuing bonds with embedded options
- Understanding the nature of the embedded option
- Building an arbitrage-free rate tree
- Valuing a vanilla bond using the rate tree
- Applying the technique to callable bonds
- Extending the analysis to bonds with other embedded options
Case study: Delegates will use market data to derive a “fair” valuation for a callable bond
Trading the Yield Curve to Enhance Yield
- Horizon (total return) analysis
- Calculating the total return
- Determining the exit price
- Choosing the optimal bond maturity for the trade
- Understanding the role of the forward rate
- Riding the yield curve: Using repo to generate gains
Case study: Delegates will calculate the holding period return and yield pick-up
Trading Convexity
- Convexity bias and the yield curve
- Basics of convexity
- What factors influence convexity
- Volatility and the value of convexity
- Convexity, yield curve and expected returns
- Convexity bias: The impact of convexity on the curve shape
- The impact of convexity on expected bond returns
- Taking advantage of convexity: Barbell – bullet analysis
Course summary and close